# Meta equity financing clocks

The October 26, 2026 launch and preliminary prospectuses describe three capital routes with different issuer-cash timing. They do not establish completed funding. Offering status, price blanks and actual-cash nulls are preserved in `evidence.json`.

Run `node model.mjs` and `node verify.mjs` from this folder. `results.json` contains reproducible results. `existing-forward-equity-model.mjs` is an unchanged copy of AI Infra Credit's earlier model; this study reuses only its `fundingPath` cash-ledger function. Its separate collared-forward function is not applied to Meta's differently described forward.

## Two isolated illustrations

Timing: opening cash45, uses30 in each of four quarters, fixed net receipt100 at the end of Q1 orQ4. Uses occur before the receipt in a quarter. Both finish with25 unfinanced cash; the late case needs75 peak bridge funding before receipt. No actual Meta liquidity, forward-price adjustment, interest, fees or preferred dividend is estimated. This demonstrates why a later receipt cannot finance an earlier invoice without an intervening source, not why early settlement is always optimal.

Conversion: normalized preference100, assumed initial price100 and threshold125. Below the initial price, one share is delivered; in the middle,100 divided by market value; above125,0.8 shares. Conversion value can fall below the preference. These are not Meta's priced terms; the actual dividend rate, collar and share count are unknown. No dividends or tax are included, so results are not total investor returns. ClassC and anti-dilution adjustments are excluded.

## Update discipline

Read any pricing term sheet and completed prospectus before replacing null economics. A424B5 form label alone does not mean final pricing: both reviewed documents say preliminary and subject to completion. Preserve launch figures when recording later changes. A closing, an option exercise, forward physical settlement and an ATM sale are distinct events.

The5bn supplier indication belongs inside the common offering; it is not a fourth financing source. The60bn ATM is a proposal without a distribution agreement at launch. The common route's expected initial issuer proceeds are zero in the ordinary borrowed-share structure, but a disclosed direct-issuance fallback prevents a blanket zero-cash claim.

Figures are generated with `node render-figures.mjs`; add `--png` with Sharp available or set `AIC_SHARP_MODULE`. Wide and narrow layouts preserve the source/assumption boundary. Reuse the AIC data and figures with attribution, dates and qualifications retained; original filings remain with their publishers.