# Customer cash before firm orders

This package separates three questions: the reported net contribution to operating cash flow, the customer's refund rights, and the project's readiness to become an order and reach delivery. All published numbers are consolidated observations, not AI-only estimates.

`evidence.json` preserves source URLs, dates, exact cash-flow line names, period definitions and unknown fields. `cash-contribution.mjs` calculates the reported contribution / same-period CFO and the arithmetic residual CFO less that line. The residual is not normalized CFO, profit, cash without customers, or a forecast of operating cash after stopping all deposits.

## Reproduce the baseline

Run `node cash-contribution.mjs` and `node verify.mjs`. `results.json` contains the same results. All amounts are USD millions. The ratio is returned only for positive CFO; negative or zero CFO produces a null ratio with an explanatory status. A positive working-capital contribution can exceed CFO because other components are net uses.

## Update with the next filings

Both companies scheduled Q3 results for October 28, 2026; the published template has no Q3 observations. Fill a copy of `next-quarter-template.json` with the exact nine-month cash-flow amounts and source. Confirm scope, classification and any restatements against the six-month baseline before setting `perimeter_confirmed` to true. Run `node cash-contribution.mjs path/to/filled-template.json`.

The calculator derives standalone Q3 as nine months less six months. It does not subtract ratios. If a cash-flow line changes scope, create a reconciled baseline rather than forcing the original row into the comparison. This is a manual research input, not a live filing feed or an automated accounting judgment.

## Keep contractual quality separate

GE Vernova's October 2025 management statement and Maxim's disclosed 2026 reservation terms are positive evidence of non-refundable deposits before full project or sale certainty. They do not allocate GE Vernova's 2026 consolidated cash flows by refundability. Maxim's Canadian project is not identified as an AI customer; its total project spending is not a separately disclosed reservation payment.

Vertiv's annual revenue policy describes breach-related refund provisions generally. It does not supply a dollar-weighted split of June deferred revenue. Nonrefundable is not the same as no delivery obligation or no supplier-breach remedy.

Do not net a closing refundable balance out of a period cash-flow contribution. If identified period flows are later disclosed, retain the original CFO denominator for a share-of-reported-CFO question; any adjusted denominator needs a separate reconciliation. Do not infer missing flows, actual receipts, refund timing, or restrictions from a balance change or a contract label.

## Figures

`cash-before-orders` maps the two contract timelines and their limits. `cash-contribution-bridge` uses a common normalized scale where reported CFO equals 100, with all dollar amounts stated. Both have narrow-screen SVG and PNG versions. Rebuild with `node render-figures.mjs`; add `--png` when Sharp is installed (or point `AIC_SHARP_MODULE` to it). Figures are generated from this package, not estimates drawn from pixels.

Public figures and data may be reused with AI Infra Credit attribution, the source/date labels and relevant qualifications retained. Source documents remain with their original publishers. No private reader correspondence is included.